Population The Elephant in the Room

Various technical topics related to science, energy, climate change and coal & gas.

Population The Elephant in the Room

Postby HVPA_research » Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:42 pm

Internet is a wonderful thing. While doing some boring research, looking for evidence that our coal export and coal seam gas industries are dangerously unregulated mess, I have somehow come across this article by Paul Chefurka Population The Elephant in the Room (http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html).

It is a competent analysis about how the out of control growth in world population and energy consumption will inevitably lead to a major crash in our society. It was the old gloomy stuff where no matter how hard you try you cannot find fault with the logic. Then I noticed that the paper was originally written in 2005 - long time ago. I became curious if Paul Chefurka is still with us and how he sees the world today. He surely is still with us and he did not change his pessimistic forecasts. His webpage shows the journey he traveled http://www.paulchefurka.ca/. His latest thinking may be very relevant for all of us in the environmental movement. Here is a quote.

Climbing the Ladder of Awareness

When it comes to our understanding of the unfolding global crisis, each of us seems to fit somewhere along a continuum of awareness that can be roughly divided into five stages:

1. Dead asleep. At this stage there seem to be no fundamental problems, just some shortcomings in human organization, behaviour and morality that can be fixed with the proper attention to rule-making. People at this stage tend to live their lives happily, with occasional outbursts of annoyance around election times or the quarterly corporate earnings seasons.

2. Awareness of one fundamental problem. Whether it's Climate Change, overpopulation, Peak Oil, chemical pollution, oceanic over-fishing, biodiversity loss, corporatism, economic instability or sociopolitical injustice, one problem seems to engage the attention completely. People at this stage tend to become ardent activists for their chosen cause. They tend to be very vocal about their personal issue, and blind to any others.

3. Awareness of many problems. As people let in more evidence from different domains, the awareness of complexity begins to grow. At this point a person worries about the prioritization of problems in terms of their immediacy and degree of impact. People at this stage may become reluctant to acknowledge new problems - for example, someone who is committed to fighting for social justice and against climate change may not recognize the problem of resource depletion. They may feel that the problem space is already complex enough, and the addition of any new concerns will only dilute the effort that needs to be focused on solving the "highest priority" problem.

4. Awareness of the interconnections between the many problems. The realization that a solution in one domain may worsen a problem in another marks the beginning of large-scale system-level thinking. It also marks the transition from thinking of the situation in terms of a set of problems to thinking of it in terms of a predicament. At this point the possibility that there may not be a solution begins to raise its head.
People who arrive at this stage tend to withdraw into tight circles of like-minded individuals in order to trade insights and deepen their understanding of what's going on. These circles are necessarily small, both because personal dialogue is essential for this depth of exploration, and because there just aren't very many people who have arrived at this level of understanding.

5. Awareness that the predicament encompasses all aspects of life. This includes everything we do, how we do it, our relationships with each other, as well as our treatment of the rest of the biosphere and the physical planet. With this realization, the floodgates open, and no problem is exempt from consideration or acceptance. The very concept of a "Solution" is seen through, and cast aside as a waste of effort.

This explains a lot -slow rate of progress, personal burnout, despair and much more.

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